French Economy

WHERE IS FRANCE GOING?
FRENCH ECONOMY AND POLITICS

Updated: December/01/2004

SUMMARY

"Quo vadis Domine?". This question could be asked to the French Government because more and more people do not know where France is going.

French economy is going bad and the present French situation could lead to some troubles.

Warning: There are only a few persons aware of the French economy's situation, because stats and meaningful facts are carefully hidden by the Media. All the figures regarding French economy and politics come from French and international Agencies.

1-SYMPTOMS - 2-ECONOMIC COLLAPSE - 3-IMMEDIATE DANGER - 4-ELITE IN DEAD END - 5-FINAL PROSPECT

1-THE SYMPTOMS

11-A political warning

1-Two years ago, Jacques Chirac had been reelected President of the Republic with 82% of the vote at the second round of the election. At the first round, Mr Chirac got the first rank with 5,6 million voters but the leader of the extreme right came in second and the socialist candidate ( Mr Jospin) and former Prime Minister was eliminated.

The extreme left scored a good result and the number of abstainers peaked to 28,7%. Look at the following drawing: (The percentages are calculated on the total electorate ).

DRAWING 1

Mr Chirac rallied easily a large majority at the second round because the extreme right leader was a discredited person with a no sense programme. However, the people had clearly provided with a warning the governing elite: In adding the extremes and the non-voters, you get 50% of the French electorate and you realize that half of the French people was angry or disapointed.

2-In April 2004, the results of the mid-term elections regarding the "Elections régionales" gave the following results:(The percentages are calculated on the total electorate).

There are three lessons:

-The socialists and their allies got 22% of total electorate.

-On the other hand, the centre-right ( UMP and other candidates) only got 21% of the total electorate.

-In adding the extremes and the non-voters, you get 56% of the French electorate

3-We have just got the results of the election for the European Parliament. Look at the results: (The percentage are calculated on the total electorate).

-Abstention and invalid ballots reach 60,5%

-In adding the extremes and the non-voters, you get 69% of the French electorate and you realize that two french out of three do not trust in the establishment (moderate right and left).

12-A gloomy atmosphere

Since 1990, many French were not happy with the economy and thought that their standard of living was declining. Some international economic indicators and stats published just before the election confirmed that: In 1990, France ranked eight in the world in term of GDP per capita. By the end of the decade the French GDP per capita had slipped to 18th.

Indeed, the French economy did not registered a high growth during the last decade compared to the US or the United kingdom.(The figures come from "World Bank little data book" in billion $ )

Years

1990

2001

% of growth

GDP-USA

5750

10,065

75%

British
France

988
1216

1424
1310

44%
8%

However, the French economic agencies and the socialists claimed that these international stats were wrong and that the thermometer was broken!

Before the presidential election, the main topic was insecurity. Polls showed that the subject topped the list of the concerns. Many french and especially poor people were more and more frightened by "insecurity". These people just asked: " We were living in a beautiful and peaceful country, we were quiet and at peace with every nation. What is happening to us?"

After the President election, a parliamentary election gave a large majority to Mr Chirac supporters and the new Prime Minister, Mr Raffarin promised to bring real changeS. The results of the "Elections régionales" and of the "European" show that two years later, there is always a strong suspicion that the government is not eager, or is unable, to bring a radical change.

1-SYMPTOMS - 2-ECONOMIC COLLAPSE - 3-IMMEDIATE DANGER - 4-ELITE IN DEAD END - 5-FINAL PROSPECT

2-THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

This survey is a very good case study for my students in micro and macro-economy( Go to new growth theory ). It shows how the socialists have driven the French Economy to a global collapse. The pernicious facts are only the symptoms of a non sense policy. As a result, presently, many factories shut down and lay off the labor force.

Updated warning:

Since the first publication of this survey in february 2003, the reality follows exactly our guideline: The public spending deficit is expected to outpace 3% of the GDP in 2004 and nobody seems able to control the trend. Unemployement is on the increase and inflation too (2,5% on one year). In 2003, the growth rate was close to zero: It is exactly what we had forecasted in february 2003 against all the official experts!

Right now, French economists forecast 2,5% in 2004 because they believe that the US economy boost will propagate in Europe. In our opinion the French growth rate will remain weak in 2004 because of the accumulation of pernicious facts.

21-Pernicious facts

Thanks to the socialist policy, unemployement and fictitious jobs represent about 19,6% of the working population. In the same time, investments are flying away while immigration increases. The gap between the happy few and the poors is enlarging.

211-Unemployment and fictitious jobs

In december 2000, an official draft stated that France had created 1,6 m jobs in four years from 1997, "ten times the number created between 1974 and 1996". In fact, the economy had registered during this period a sharp increase of unemployment. It had been masked through a rise in public service and fictitious jobs.

-Unemployment

According to the definition of the international labor board, working population includes all the people who are eager to work: That is to say the real workers and the unemployers. In this context the economic unemployement amounted 3 millions people or 11,5% of the working population. Just take a look at the following figures (In million people)

Years	1970	1990	2000
Working population	21	24,5	26
Unemployment	0,5	2,2	2,3
Other	0	0	0,7
Real employment	20,5	22,3	23

Beside the official unemployment (2,3 m), 700,000 people had been channelled to vocational training, early retirement, and dispense of working. In adding these people to the official unemployment figure, we get 3 m and 11,5% of the working population.

However, in the last years of the decade the country got a high growth rate (3% in 1999 and 3,6% in 2000). Despite this fact, the unemployment rate remained very high.

-Fictitious jobs

What is more, in order to mask the real rise of the unemployment, the socialist Government massively increased the fictitious jobs. Trough a youth employment sheme, It created and subsidized:

-500,000 public jobs in the public services: (CES,CEV,CEC). As a result 5,9 millions people are today working in the public service!

-1,500,000 private jobs: (CRE,CIE) through a temporary relief on the payroll taxes paid by private employers.

Look at the following figures ( In million people )

Years	1970	1990	2000
Working population	21	24,5	26
Unemployment	0,5	2,2	3
Fictitious jobs	0	0,8	2
Real employment	20,5	21,5	21

As you can see unemployment and fictitious jobs represent about 19% of the working population.

Of course, this trend had hampered the worker productivity. Between 1990 and 2001, the productivity per worker had increased by 10% in france compared to 20% in the united kingdom and 25% in the USA. For example, the labor productivity had fallen by 20% in health, education and social action!

With such a low productivity, economists have calculated that the GDP growth rate should range between 1,5% and 0,8% in the ten next years against 3% in the USA.

212-Investments schift abroad.

One of the worst symtoms is carefully hidden and most of people ignore it. During the last three years, France had massively exported its investments abroad.

The direct French investments abroad had increased from 40 Eurobillion in 1998 to 187 in 2000 ( Figures in the drawing red part). On the contrary, the foreign investments realized in France had raised from 20 in 1998 to 48 in 2000 (Figures in the blue part). In 2000, the difference amounted 139 Eurobillion that is to say 10% of the GDP! France exports more investments abroad than the USA. Clearly, the business class is voting with its feet!

DRAWING 2

In 2001, the foreign investments amount 55,3 Eurobillion while the direct french investments abroad attain 87,9 Eurobillion. It means that the trend is going on!

Such figures could appear incredible. French readers can easily check them: Report to INSEE "Tableaux de l'economie française 2003-2004" page 191 and : INSEE-L'economie française, édition 2002-2003- Editeur: Le livre de poche - références. Pages 240-241.

Trade unions and public opinion believe that these investments are delocalised in undeveloped countries. In fact, 93% of them are channelled to European Union (60%) and to the USA (33%). It means that we contribute to the US development!

From a liberal point of view, it's not astonishing that a mature economy mainly invests abroad an get revenues in return. However, such a policy does not imply jobs creation on the national territory. More precisely, it implies that the talented young people expatriate in order to follow the investments. In fact many talented young french people are more and more expatriating themselves.

213-Immigration on the increase.

While the investments are flying away, the entries of foreign workers are raising. The recent figures, including students since they are authorized to get a job are the following :

DRAWING 3

Most of the French agencies claim that immigration is under control! Once again French readers are invited to check these figures: Report to the survey " Immigration et présence étrangère en France en 2002" published by the Minister of social affairs.

214-Increasing gap between rich and poors.

In 1962, the middle class represented about 42% of the working population in including the intermediary professions ( For example, elementary school teacher) . Look at the first horizontal column.

DRAWING 4

In 2000, the intermediary categorie cannot be included anymore in the middle class. Today, an elementary school teacher earns about 1730 euros per month and he feel himself like a proletaire and certainly not like a middle man. Consequently, the middle and upper class only represent 22% of the working population. It means that the low working class had never been so large.

As a result, the distribution of revenus is on a dangerous trend for the social peace. The next table figures show the wages and self employment profit per capita, before social revenus and income tax on the period 1995-2000.

Years	1995	2000	% of growth
Wages	16253	19851	22,1%
Profit	77500	127130	64%
Wages+Social		22085
Idle		14902

As the business class is smaller than in 1995, their income per capita raised by 64%. On the contrary, the wages per capita raised by 22%. Half the french workers and employees ( about 12 million people) have a monthly pay lesser than 1,240 euros ( 14,880 per year in 2001).

What is more, 13,9% earn only the minimal wage: 1,154 euros in 2002. This rate is only 1,5% in united kingdom and in USA. When you consider that a rent for a little flat (65 square meters ) ranks between 350 to 700 euros in Paris, you can realize that this minimum wage only allows a poor living.

The constant increase of social revenus over the period had been the only way to avoid massive poverty. In 2001 without social revenus, 16% of the household ( that is to say about 8 million persons) should be under the poverty line ( 800 euros per month for a household of two persons). Taking in account the social revenus, this rate falls to 7%. However, it means that about 4 million people are really poor despite the redistribution.

What are the causes of these pernicious evolutions?

22-Bad economic governance

In economy, work is a merchandise ruled by the law of supply and demand. When I am seeking a job, I offer my work force and consequently I am a furnisher. The total of the people seeking jobs represents the supply. On the contrary, the employers who want to get labor force represent the demand. According to our politicians and media, it's just the contrary: People looking for a job represent the demand and the business represents the supply!

When the supply exceeds the demand, a stock appears ( unemployment) and a new equilibrium is found when the price (the salary) falls or when the suppliers reduce their quantity ( For example they emigrate).

Facing a problem of work supply superior to the demand, the socialists did not limit the work supply and rationed the work for providing more jobs. As they did not reduce the salaries and the pensions, they faced an increase of the work cost. Finally, they switched this increase to the taxpayers.

221-They did not limit the work supply.

The wages-earners (Working population-Self employers such as farmers, merchants or biz owners) raised from 21,5m in 1990 to 23,5 m in 2000. The causes of this increase are:

-The baby boom and the longer life expectancy.

-Many self employers gave up and joined the labor force: farmers, small merchants and so on: Self employers declined from 3,1 m in 1990 to 2,6 in 2000. It could mean that about 0,5 m people had joined the labor force over the period.

-Women joined the workmarket because only one salary was not sufficient for a living.

-Finnaly, immigration brought a new wave of workers on the market: Between 0,5m and 1m over the period 1990-2000.

Immigration was the only factor that could be managed. In fact, the Government did nothing because many scholars favor immigration:

-They argue that foreigners do the shopfloor that the French do not want to occupy. It's true but the cause relies on the low paid salaries. If the salaries were higher, many people should apply to these jobs. What is more, the unemployment higher rate peaks inside the migrants ( 18,6% and 45% for the younth under 24).

-They state that we need a large immigration for supporting the growing number of pensioners ( retired people). According to the forecasts, the ratio between the working population and the pensioners could fall from 2,3 to 1,1 in 2050.

Years	2001	2020	2050
Working population	26	26	24
Retired	12,8	17,3	24
Ratio	2,3	1,5	1
Global population	61	62,7	64

Facing this evolution, They suggest a massive immigration in order to restore an acceptable rate. They don't take in account that this massive immigration is expected to retire some day and that we should need again a new wave in order to keep the acceptable rate and so on. By the end, France should be inhabited by 150 m people! It's just like Gribouille who throws himself in the river for avoiding to be wetted by the rain! Nevertheless, the media propagate this cranky solution for some obscure ideological motives ( see 433).

As a result immigration had not slowed down.

222-They increased the work price through 35 hours and early retirement

In a normal economy, the raise of the supply results in a fall of the price. As the work price is regulated by a floor price (the minimum salary for a given number of working hours), the raise of the supply can only result in an increase of unemployement. Surprisingly, the socialist government had worsened the situation in increasing the floor price through a cut in the working hours and a promotion of early retirement.

-Increase of the work price through 35 hours

Work is a product. When the legal working hours amount 40 hours for a floor price, 40 hours represent a value A. When the legal duration is reduced to 35 hours for the same floor price, it means that the work price is increased by 14%.

Through the 35 hours sheme, the socialist government thought that it was rationing the supply. In fact, as the floor price remained unchanged, it was just increasing the work price. Look at the next table that shows the working hours in different countries.

Years	1980	1999
US	1831	1862
United kingdom	1750	1695
Germany	1633	1400
France	1669	1490

-Increase of work price trough early retirement

It's the same for the policy of early retirement. Attached to the work price there is a pay roll calculated for providing with a future pension. This pay roll is a part of the price. When you promote early retirement, you raise the payroll and finally you raise the price of the work.

It's quite simple to understand but our socialists with their will to ration the work supply had incited people to take ealier retirement with very good pensions. As a result only 31% of people old between 55 and 65 are still working. 12,8 million are retired and get 177 euro billions as pensions. In some way , our socialists have invented a new social concept: the large idle class!

You could object that there is some contradiction between this increase of the work price and the low salaries that we had observed above. In fact there is not any contradiction: Look at the drawing:

DRAWING 5

-In A, the red space represents the cash salary in hand. The blue space represents payroll paid by the employer.

-B shows the impact of the 35 hours and early retirement. The cash salary does not change but the worker enjoyes 5 idle hours (Yellow space). These five hours represent a cost increase for the employer. On the other hand, the payroll increases too in connection with the early retirement.

-As a result A+ and B+ shows the real cost increase for the employer ( In red because it corresponds to a real outflow of cash for the business). By the end of the process, you can see that the worker has not get more cash money. Nevertheless, the cost of the work price has shot up!

-In fact, as the Economy was unable to bear this increased cost, a major part of it had been transferred from the employers to the taxpayers!

223-Consequences on State spending

The next drawing shows the vicious circle of the socialist policy with its real causes and consequences.

DRAWING 6

-The first graph shows an equilibrium between the supply S and the demand through a basic price P. In such a situation, there is no unemployment. It was the situation in the 70.

-In the second graph, the supply increases from S to S+. In a normal market, the price should fall from p to p-. Once again, there is not any unemployment. The third graph shows the reality: As P is a price floor (minimum wages) it can't fall. As a result, all the increase of supply S+ becomes unemployement: This blue column corresponds to our official unemployment: 3 million people.

-In the fourth graph, the government increases the floor price from p to p+. As a result, the equlibrium should be found for a supply S-. It means that a new stock of unemployment should appear (Grey column).

-As the government cannot accept a new wave of unemployment, it subsidizes the jobs in reducing the employers payroll and in recruiting more people. As a result the new stock is employed (Yellow column in the fifth graph). This yellow column corresponds to our figure of fictitious jobs: 2 million people.

-By the end, through reducing payroll and increasing public services, the cost is transferred to the taxpayers and finally appears under the form of a growing deficit in the State public accounts.

Of course, such a policy explains the constant growth of the government spending accounts which amount 45% of the GDP. This rate is higher than in other countries:

YEARS--------------------1985----------------1999
Germany--------------- - --33------------ -----38
United kingdom------------ 38---------------- -36
USA------------------------ 26------------ -----29
France--------------------- 44---------------- -46

This growing part is the consequence of the previous policy. As a result, more and more taxes finance the social expenses which should be paid by the payroll taxes. Look at the drawing:(In euro billion. 658 eurobillion represent 46% of the french GDP:1430 Billion.)

DRAWING 7

On the other hand, the social revenus cannot be reduced. For example, they are divided into:( euro billion)

Pension------------------------ 177
Unemployment----------------- 34
family- logement--------------- 53
health: -------------------------136
TOTAL:------------------------- 400

As pensions, and unemployment revenus are the living of the people, how could you reduce them? Our analysis shows that the State spending and the social protection policy are the consequences of the employment policy. More idle people is produced by the employment policy and more social expenses are needed for giving a living to the idle people.

224-Legacy for the future

Due to the yearly deficit, the public debt increases. The amount of the public debt per capita had grown four fold since 1985 and the debt service represents an increased share of the State budget.

YEARS ----------------------1985----- 2000
euro/per inhabitant:--------2881---- 11265
share/budget: --------------9,3%---- 14,1%

Clearly, we are leaving the bill for the future generations!

225-Conclusion

Did you get it? I hope to have make me clear. As you can see these policies have been the contrary of the good practices: It was quite a non sense to increase the work supply and in the same time to raise the work price!.

As a result, investments are flying abroad. The share of investment in the GDP diminishes and has decreased from 23,4% in 1990 to 19% en 1999 ( "World Bank-little Data Book " -page 89).

Of course, the government expects that a high growth revival could compensate the consequences (Notably, their direct impact on State spending). Firstly, as France is a mature country, it's not reasonable to expect a growth rate higher than 1 or 1,5% on the medium term ( See OECD forecasts). Secondly, the productivity is slowing down. Thirdly the decrease of investments and the raise of consumption can only result in inflation (That is really the case) and/or a deteriorating trade balance (that is really the case too!)

23-Recommendations

According to our diagnosis the right question is not" how could we create more jobs?". The good questions are: "how could we reduce the work supply, decrease the global work price, raise the low salaries and limit the State spending?". All these connected questions are the components of a sole policy that we can easily describe. Unfortunately, it's too late for avoiding the crash.

231-Limit the work supply

Of course, we have to limit the work supply instead of trying to ration it.

-Offer an alternative for women

Many women (or men) would prefer to stay at home and to take care of the kids instead of working. They are eager to work just because one salary is not sufficient. It would be wise to channel all the family aid (40,8 billions euro in 2000) to the families who get only one salary. Reserve also the fiscal deduction on the income tax (quotient familial ) for these families. This measure will favor the education of child at home.

-Boost the entrepreneurship program.

For many years, the government has favored a policy only based on the extend of the wages-earners. For reducing the pressure and for improving creativity, it's vital to develop a network of new small enterprises. In 2001, the number of new biz ( not including the reprise and the reactivation) represents only 174,000 Creations versus 400,000 in Italy and 300,000 in United kingdom.

Mr Chirac promised the creation of 1 million over five years ( That is to say 150,000 added to the current trend). In order to get this limited goal, Mr Raffarin announced some new measures: Authorize the entrepreneurs to operate from their home up to five years and spread the social charges of the first year over five years. Obviously, these measures are not sufficient because the expected benefit for the entrepreneur can only be obtained through a bureaucratic puzzle. Look at the drawing.

DRAWING 8

We propose a very cool system for the new biz which don't employ any workers. During five years, they will not fill up any application and will not pay any social or fiscal taxes. A new biz should just register through internet like million of home-based business, notably mom business, in the US. Clearly, we propose to officialize and to keep under control the black market. ( You are constantly regularizing the illegal workers. Right now, regularize the illegal business!)

-Limit immigration.

Of course immigration can be an asset for an Economy. For example, the US economy has benefited of immigration in the last ten years because the supply of work was too weak. A shortage would had raised the inflation. What is more, the US constantly favor a high qualified immigration especially in the new tech. For example 34% of the american doctors in science are born outside the US just like 32% of the physic nobel prize.

On the other hand, immigration must be regulated notably when the supply of work is too important. Obviously in the France case, and due to the baby boom, it would be wise to limit any immigration except the elite immigration such as scientits or enginners. For enforcing this measure, it should be recommended to suppress the RMI for everybody (5,6 billions euros in 2000).

232-Decrease the real work floor cost.

The following measures could bring a fast result:

-With an unchanged legal duration of 35 hours, authorize the employees to work as long as they want until a limit of 1860 hours per year (It's the present US limit). We must be aware that most of the workers would be very happy to get the opportunity of additional earnings trough longer working hours.

-On the other hand, for maintaining the present ratio between the working population and the pensioners, it would be sufficient to raise the retired age at 74. However, if the higher pensions were reduced, the average retired age could be 70 like in Sweden.

We must underline that the present system is quite an outrage. As many executives get a pension quite equal to their last salary, they enjoy a very good living for a long time. For example, you may imagine an executive who had worked during 35 years. He retired at 60 with 80% of its last salary and as he can live until 90, he will enjoy this salary during 30 years just for doing nothing! Consequently, you may see many old fellows or their lucky widows in five stars resorts all around the world!

In summary, it should be wise to extend to 70 years old the retired age with full pension for executives and employees ( Of course people could retire early with a lower pension). On the contrary, we can maintain the present retired age for blue collars with full pension (60 old) because their life expectancy is shorter. Nevertheless, the blue collars should be authorized to extend their working period in order to get a bonus on their full pension.

A retired age at 70 also implies also a reduction of the higher pensions in order to maintain the present ratio. In order to alleviate the present young generation, it should be wise to apply a progressive tax on the present pensioners in order to diminish the CSG ( For example).

I can assume that with such measures, the pension problem should be solved. It would not be necessary to raise our population to 150 million people! Maybe, the pension problem is mainly a competency problem! Unfortunately, only a revolution should be able to empower the above measures.

233-Increase the cash work price

Considering the economies realized on RMI and pensions, it would be possible to raise the low paid salaries (All the salaries under 1240 euros per month) by about 20%. It concerns 12 million of workers. The cost for the economy could be estimated to 35 euro billion easily compensated by the suppression of the RMI and the progressive tax on the pensions (Amount of pensions in 2001: 177 euro billion. A progressive tax could easily bring 30 euro billion).

234-Reduce the State spending

The present government must set up the objective to decrease the public spending accounts from 45% to 40 (35%: British level) over five years. Presently, 5 points of GDP represent 73 euro billion. It means that you have to save each year 15 euro billion ( Considering a constant GDP over the period).

At first glance, it's possible to suppress the spending for employment and solidarity (32 billion), the RMI (5 Billion). The non replacement of the civil servant leaving for retire (912,000 in 15 years that is to say 300,000 in five years, between 2003 and 2018) could represent in wages a saving of 8,5 billion). We can also suppress 14 billion regarding the unemployement and 20 billion of family expenses according to our above proposal. The gross total represents 79,5 euro billion.

President Chirac promised to cut income tax by 30% over five years. It could be only possible if the previous measures were first taken. What is more, the cut in the income tax should be connected to a tax reform in order to improve justice: Many rich people are exempting from tax through investments in fun business ( Cruise boats, luxury hostels and so on) in overseas territories. What is more, some big farmers who are living in their manors, don't pay too much!

In fact, these measures should be enforced right now but the elite and the trade unions do not seem really eager to go in this way.

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1-SYMPTOMS - 2-ECONOMIC COLLAPSE - 3-IMMEDIATE DANGER - 4-ELITE IN DEAD END - 5-FINAL PROSPECT

3-JIHADISM

The current economic collapse is connected with a clash due to the jihadism threat.

31-Disturbing facts

Iin october 2001 at a soccer match between France and Algeria, young people booed and whistled at the French national anthem. This event was seen like a national scandal. In the same time, violences against people, notably poor people in the suburbs, became more and more unbearable.

With the september attack, it became quite clear that many young were influenced by the extremist jihadism. Saddam or Bin laden were openly applaud in some districts. Presently, because of the jihadist ideology, anti-semistism is rampant in many French cities and suburbs. Jewish groups have reported as many as 400 incidents in recent months. The French jewish community is now living in daily fear for its safety notably in schools and universities.

Finally, in their fight against terrorism, the French secret services have discovered a number of suspects. France just like UK and Germany harbours an unknown number of terrorist cells. We are far from the insecurity concept. We are facing in fact the jihadist concept. The cause is a global problem not only in France but in the world. To understand what it means go to Jihadism.

32-Jihadism on the increase.

Of course, the 5 to 6 million muslims living in France, are peaceful people and jihadists are yet a minority. Therefore, more and more young are turning to hard line religious practices such as school food, headscarve, and so on.

For example, since 1980, woman emancipation has been on the decrease. Girls who act and behave like emancipated persons are constantly harassed. The only way to be preserved of offences is to wear the headscarve and to look like a bigot. More and more marriages are organized by the parents without the free consent of the girls.

Look at the next drawings: It shows the pressure of the jihadists (dark green) on their community (green) and consequently the converging pressure on our entire society (in blue)

DRAWING 9

Moreover, it's worth to underline that the jihadists do not really care about religion and its spiritual topics. They emphasize on its politic side. As a result, this politic doctrine is a real fachism and a new totalitarian. More and more, religion just appears to be a pretext of this plague. Once again go to jihadism

33-Governments: Wrong analysis-Wrong policies

Governments try to mask the reality. On the long term, it's impossible to ignore the reality: Some people are driving a low intensity intifada against the French Republic.

The media and the government try deseperately to disconnect insecurity from jihadism. Talking about daily violence, the medias use the word "youth" as a code word for young jihadists. Do they think that the people can be lured by so petty methods?

For example, french leaders always condemn the violence. But they condemnt it just if it was casual violent crimes. They must state that these violences are based on the jihadist ideology. They must state that attacking people because of their religious beliefs is an ugly faschim and a religious war act against the entire nation.

I want to make me clear? When a man thieves a pocketbook, it's just a violence against one private person. When a man attempts to kill somebody because of his religion, it's a big offence not only against the victim but against the entire French Republic: I mean a war act!

According to some scholars, this situation only reflects the fact that the youth have not been properly integrated in the french society. Consequently, we should need some affirmative action and a fight against job discrimination. Of course discrimination could be a cause of hatrous behaviors but it can be argued that these behaviors are by themselves a cause of job discrimination: It's a chicken and egg causality. It does not lead anywhere.

Our governments do their best for ignoring the ideological fact. They do not realize that a dark ideology is increasing and largely deprived of economic motives: Situation in schools provides with a decisive proof. There is not any discrimination for attending schools. However, schools are suffering of a tide wave of violence based on anti-semitism, vandalism and violences against the girls.

It can be said that the present Government is aggravating the situation because of its foreign policy which follows a dangerous path. Let's me explain this fact.

The globalization has contributed to dissolve the nations and to replace them by two world systems: Liberal society is a system which includes people living for example in France, in the USA, or in Brazil and Jordan. The democratic States represent the tools of this system. Opposed to the liberal society, there is the jihadist system. The people who belongs to this system also lives in France, in the USA or in Jordan.

According to this analysis, each country contains opposed forces. When a country is clearly connected to the other democracies, the liberal forces in the entire system strenghten the liberal force inside each participant country. On the contrary, when a country acts like a lonely star, the jihadist forces wake up and bring increasing troubles. Its could appear complicated but look at the following drawing.

DRAWING 10

The big blue circle represents the liberal system and the democratic bloc. The little circle inside is France. In such a position, the liberal forces are predominant. As France is leaving its bloc, the opposed force wake up and there is a raise of antagonisms. Finally when the country is going too far, it could explode.

Presently, France is really acting like the above lonely star. Our diplomacy is going away from US and UK. The hysterical campaign against the US Government is just an example of such a trend. "Save soldier Saddam" seems to be our elite obsession. Of course the French jihadists are very happy with that because they believe that their pressure is successful. As a result, be sure that they will raise the stake at the next step.

It means that this Foreign policy is dangerous for the inner stability of France. For more explanations go to: European foreign policy

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1-SYMPTOMS - 2-ECONOMIC COLLAPSE - 3-IMMEDIATE DANGER - 4-ELITE IN DEAD END - 5-FINAL PROSPECT

4-ELITE IN DEAD END

"What is the cause of the causes?" could ask Pyrrho. All this evolution is not the result of the fatality. Since the sixties, France has been ruled by a very monolithic elite. Clearly this elite must bear some responsabilities. We are not looking for a scapegoat, but "Redde Caesari quae sunt Caesaris et quae sunt Dei Deo"!

Examining our situation, futur historian will certainly observe that only one governing eneration would had been sufficient for destroying a country which existed for 1500 years. Obviously our present elite is at stake. It's worth to examine its history, structure and present situation.

41-The ideological background

411-Historic background

Since the revolution, France harbours a very large communist and trotskyst movement predominant among the intellectuals: Scholars, academic, scientists, philosophers, novelists, artists and media. For example, according to an opinion poll realized in 1992, 65% of the journalists inclined to left or extreme left. In TV channels, the tycoons are coming from the right while the presenters and hosts are inclined to left. Moreover, scenarist and authors are often coming from the extreme left. In such a situation, informations and news are often distorted and biased.

As a result, it's not amazing that the extreme left is yet occupying a large place on the politic scene. France is today becoming the motherland of the movement against the globalization and the western world values.

On the other hand, since world war two, the centre right has been influenced by the gaullist ideology. De gaulle was clearly a man coming from the authoritarian society and his economic ideas were summarized in a doctrine called Colbertism ( Colbert was the Sun king's finance minister!) because it emphasizes on a strong public governance of the entire economy and the market subordination to the State interest. As you can observe, none of these doctrines privilegiate individual freedom and happiness. The first is a specie of the communist ideology and the second is a monarchy relic. In fact, these two doctrines should be opposed but trough a pernicious hegelian dialectic, their antagonism has given a new product: The french ideology.

412-The French ideology

This ideology has occured through a concentration into three schools: For many years, the children of the upper class (right or left) have been channelled into only three centers of excellence ( Polytechnique, l'école nationale d'administration, l'école normale superieure ). These three schools have developed a synthesis of the trotkyst and colbertist visions based on three ideas:

-The greatness of france: it means a powerful France, using of all its tools (European union, independant nuclear power, permanent member of the UN security council, francophonie and so on ). Clearly, it's based on a colbertist idea but the synthesis with the left is realized through the solidarity with the third world and notably today with the Arab world.

-The national cohesion through the cult of the public service: It explains the importance of the State spending and of the social revenus in the GDP. Of course, the left is very happy with this stream because it conducts directly to a socialist society.

-The confidence in public regulations and bureaucracy opposed to the free market. Clearly, this belief is shared by the colbertits (remember the corporations) and thesocialists.

This French ideology reconciles the dreams of the left and of the colbertists. Take in account this ideology and you can understand many things such as the position of france toward Irak.

42-A new nobility

Our three schools ( the three sisters) totalize about 15,000 alumnis. This miniscule elite commands all the country: The politics, the civil service, the public sector, the main company of the private sector. It's a new gentry which commands what you have to do.

This new nobility coopts itself to all the head offices. They use the same code and language (The famous "politically correct"). All the society is closely controled by a real network. Look at the drawing.

DRAWING 12

What is more, they control the education and the media: Clearly it's also a new clergy which commands what you have to think.

Just like the catholic church in the past, this new clergy is constantly trying to make the People feel guilty, in order to increase his influence:According to our new "clergy", we have killed the indians, developed slavery, looted all the wealth of the third world. We have been accomplice of the nazi. We are currently racist and hainous and so on. Such a speech is daily propagated by the media and the intellectuals. In listening that, any reasonable person should think that the Western Europe is inhabited by a savage tribe: Clearly the best solution should be to clean it from the surface of the world!

In fact, our "clergy" explains that thanks to our aging population, our native population should be quickly replaced by overseas populations. Any person who protests is harassed and sometimes prosecuted. Free speech and free writing are no more respected.

43-Threat on Freedom of opinion

In France, there is not like in the US a "first amendment " to protect freedom of opinion. Since 1970, a juridical framework has been set up in order to prevent any critiscim ith respect of some sensitive matters such as immigration and insecurity.

All along these sensitive topics, citizens are subjected to fines, harassment, imprisonment for dissenting from the nobility politically correct code. For example it is forbidden to state that immigration may have harmful consequences: Some individuals have been sued for that.

A lot of third world NGO are empowered to exerce a real ideological police on such matters. This situation encourages self censorship and the use of code words.

44-Dead end

For a long time, the system had well functioned. Succession of moderate socialists and centre- right was mainly an alternance between old chaps coming from the same schools. As a result, the political debate was deprived of any new idea or creativity and just good for amusing the countryfolk between two soccer match. As we have seen with the result of the recent elections, the People is tired. Its anger is great!

The People did not contest the system as long as the elite was supposed competent, bright, and honest. Presently, there are some worries about honesty, competency and a coming revolt against the "Politically correct" .

441-Honesty

In the recent years, an astonishing number of alumni coming both from the left and the right were convicted for misusing of tax payer money, banking irregularities, grand corruption and so on. Some scandals like the Credit Lyonnais, the warships sold to Taiwan, the oil for food program corruption and so on are yet poisoning the elite quietness. Our friends of Transparency international rank France 25th in descending order of ethical cleanliness behind all other European countries.

What is more, the Foreign policy had been gripped by some hidous and never really elucidated facts, notably in Serbia and Rwanda. Considering an elite which is constantly giving lessons to other, such a situation is quite annoying!

442-Competency

According to the present results, we do not need any more comments. Just like any closed circle, the elite has been deprived of any creativity and new ideas. It's a common feature in all the past and present aristocracies.Nevertheless, just an updated comment: In 2002, two leading french companies have registered 40 billions euros of losses. It represents about 2,7% of the global french GDP! These two companies were headed by two alumni of ENA. In fact, the medias and the elite do not matter about such accounting details!

443-Revolt against the "Politically correct"

The People's revolt began with the "what is happening to us". Before the Presidential election, the elite had only one answer " Nothing happens- Just cure your little white phantasms!"

We have seen the results: An angry warning! It traduces a revenge against the "politically correct" because that's going too far! In fact, the elite is conscious of its precarious situation but it cannot bring any change. Why? Because its nature based on a synthesis of two opposed ideologies prevents any move. This synthesis was a good asset when business was as usual. Today, facing some dramatic events, the elite is quite paralysed. Remember that the French monarchy and the Russian tzarism had been overthrow by violent revolutions for the same reason. Their leaders were eager to change for surviving but finally it was an impossible task.

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1-SYMPTOMS - 2-ECONOMIC COLLAPSE - 3-IMMEDIATE DANGER - 4-ELITE IN DEAD ND - 5-FINAL PROSPECT

5- CONCLUSION

By the end, the Honest forces will win because France is not alone in the world. The great change will come from outside just like during world war 2. As the world war against Jihadism will extend throughout the entire world, France, will not remain out of this tide wave. World will be reshaped and as a consequence France too. Thanks to this wave, a new elite will surge. Of course all these events will occur through many turmoil but it's the price to pay for freedom.

Links: Click below

www.ofce.sciences-po.fr

http://www.ined.fr/

http://www.insee.fr/

http://www.plan.gouv.fr/

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/

http://www.oecd.org/

www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat

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